
Better than expected storage report keeps the bulls at bay.
🔋 One Minute Energy Update – 7/25/24 🌍
🗞️ Today’s Highlights:
1️⃣ Freeport LNG Ramps Up 🚢: Post-Beryl recovery means up to 2Bcf/D moving to LNG exports, impacting domestic supply.
2️⃣ Record NatGas Power Generation ⚡: July 9th saw 6.9MM MWh, the highest since hourly data tracking began (Jan 2019).
3️⃣ Wind Power Decline 🌬️: July 9th produced only 0.3MM MWh, a significant drop from June's 1.3MM MWh average.
4️⃣ Growing NatGas Demand 📈.
5️⃣ Oil Prices Drop ⛽: China's rate cut signals demand concerns.
6️⃣ Coal Dominates Globally 🏭: Still the main energy source for power generation.
#NYMEXDown #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBearishBeforeBullish #CarbonOffsets
📊 Market Snapshot:
NYMEX: Open = $2.12, High = $2.15, Low = $2.07, Current = $2.12 (Up $0.05 from last week)
NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates: 2024 = $2.50, 2025 = $3.31, 2026 = $3.68
NYMEX Monthly Averages: 2024 YTD = $2.19, 2023 = $2.73, 2022 = $6.64, 2021 = $3.84
🛠️ Technicals:
Averages: Below 50-day ($2.55), 20-day ($2.31), and 9-day ($2.16)
Resistance: Starting @ $2.15/$2.19
Pivot: $2.13
Support: Starting @ $2.08/$2.06
📈 Basis Prices:
PG&E CG: 2023 avg = $9.83, 2024 avg = $3.24
SoCal CG: 2023 avg = $10.95, 2024 avg = $3.03
SoCal Border: 2023 avg = $8.14, 2024 avg = $2.45
🌐 LNG & NG Exports/Imports:
LNG Exports = 11.1Bcf
Mexico Exports = 6.9Bcf
Canadian Imports = 6.5Bcf
🔍 Supply & Demand:
2024 Production avg = 104Bcf/D, 2025 = 105Bcf/D
Today’s Est. Supply = 106.8Bcf, Demand = 104.1Bcf
🛢️ Rig Count:
Total = 586 (NatGas rigs up by 3 to 103, Oil rigs down by 1 to 477)
📦 Storage:
Latest injection = 22Bcf (18Bcf estimated)
Current = 3,231Bcf (249Bcf higher than last year, 456Bcf above 5-year avg)
🌡️ Weather & Forecasts:
Short-Term: Highs in 90s-100s in SW, Central, SE US
Long-Term: Bullish in 5-15 day forecast, bearish Aug-Dec
Hurricane Season: 25 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes predicted
🛢️ Crude Oil:
Current = $76.20
Forward estimates: 2024 = $76.27, 2025 = $72.46, 2026 = $68.97
🔌 CA Retail Power:
Grid Status = Normal, Pricing = $55-$70/MWh
NatGas = 54.6% of power gen, Renewables = 12.4%
🌿 Carbon Offsets:
Mandates starting 2025 – plan ahead!
🔚 The Bottom Line:
NYMEX prices below Q3 & Q4 2024 projections
RFP ES expanding services across multiple regions – get your custom quotes at RFPES.com
#EnergyUpdate #NatGas #LNG #EnergyMarket #CarbonOffsets #RenewableEnergy #PowerGeneration #EnergyDemand