Dec '24 is the new prompt month!

THE One Minute Energy Update for 10-30-24

#NYMEX

DEC ’24 –

Open = $2.90, High = $2.91, Low = $2.77, Current = $2.82

Previous Day = $2.85

New Prompt Month from 1 week ago

-$0.05 from 1 year ago

#NYMEX STRIPS ESTIMATES

2025 = $3.10, 2026 = $3.55, 2027 = $3.66, 2028 = $3.61, 2029 = $3.51.

2024 NYMEX Monthly Avg. (through Oct ‘24) = $2.18

2023 NYMEX Monthly Average = $2.73

2022 NYMEX Monthly Average = $6.64

2021 NYMEX Monthly Average = $3.84

We are below the 50-day avg. ($2.45), below the 20-day avg. ($2.63) and below the 9-day ($2.35) avg.

#RESISTANCE = $2.95/$3.05

#PIVOT = $2.87

#SUPPORT = $2.80/$2.70

#BASIS – Mostly red this morning except for California where PG&E CG and SoCal CG remain elevated.  Below normal temps are driving this bull run on CA Basis.

Extreme Basis Movers –

El Paso Waha +$2.31 (N/A).  PG&E Southern Border -$0.53 (22%)

#PG&ECGBasis Today +$0.245

#SoCalCGBasis Today +$0.325

2024 PG&E CG FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $3.23.

2023 avg = $9.83.

2024 SoCal CG FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $2.88.

2023 avg = $10.95.

2024 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $2.37.

2023 avg = $8.14.

#LNG EXPORTS = 13.0Bcf

#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.4Bcf

#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.0Bcf

#PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 102.2Bcf

#SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 108.0Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 107.5Bcf

#DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 99.4Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 99.2Bcf

7 Day Demand Forecast = Light to Very Light

#RIGCOUNT as of 10-18-24

Oil - 2 @ 480 rigs,

NatGas + 2 @ 101 rigs,

Miscellaneous @ 4 rigs.

Total = 585.

Last year this time @625.

#STORAGE

We are currently 106Bcf higher than this time last year, 167Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,618Bcf.  At 3,785Bcf, we are within the 5-year historical range.  Storage Level Projections - end of Oct ’24 = 3.80Tcf.  March ’25 = 1.90Tcf.

#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – NEXT 48 HOURS

#PACIFIC = D1 w/20% chance of formation.  Disturbance 2 w/20% chance of formation.

#WEATHER

Today = Cooler temps draping Pac NW/West/Rockies/NE.  The rest of the US regions enjoying above normal temps for this time of year.

6 - 10-day = Bearish.  10 - 15-day = Bearish.

Oct - Dec = Bearish.  Nov – Jan = Bearish. Dec ’24 – Feb ’25 = Bearish.

#CRUDE

Futures Plunging.  Dec ’24 = $67.90.  Forward Estimates: 2024 = $67.21, 2025 = $65.89, 2026 = $64.65, 2027 = $64.07.

#POWER

. Power output is up 2.59% from previous week, up 1.68% Y/Y.

. Outdated and poorly managed power grids across the US will widen the gap between supply and demand.

. Demand is increasing due to EV stations, data centers, decrease in coal.

Prices will increase Y/Y.

CAISO Grid Status = Normal.

CAISO price range as of 1PM, 10-29-24 = -$5 - $53.  Avg. = $14.

CAISO price range as of 5AM, 10-30-24 = $43 - $67.  Avg. = $42.

#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 2PM, PST, 10-29-24 – NatGas 12%, RE 74%, Hydro 2%, Imports 1%, Nuclear 9%.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. DEC ’24 is the new prompt month.

. NYMEX NG prices fell to a near 2-month low early yesterday.

. NYMEX NG prices start today down a few cents.

. Dec ’24 pricing remains bearish.

THE BOTTOM LINE

NYMEX NG prices continue to fall.  We’re now waiting on certain Basis delivery points prices to follow suit.  Driving factors remain bearish, so we should see downward corrections over the next 5 – 7 business days.

RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, UT, CA, NV, AZ, NM, (parts of) TX, and PJM, Mid-Con, Gulf States, and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com

X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie