Demand is Up, Weather is Bullish, and NYMEX is Flat

Demand is Up, Weather is Bullish, and NYMEX is Flat


THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-28-24 🚀
#NYMEXFlat 📉
#PG&EBasisDown ⬇️
#SoCalBasisCrashes 💥
#WeatherBullish☁️
#CarbonOffsets 🌱
NYMEX Pricing Today:
Open: $2.50
High: $2.58
Low: $2.47
Current: $2.52
📉 NYMEX prices are down:
~$0.05 from last week
~$0.02 from last year
NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:
2024: $2.93
2025: $3.51
2026: $3.92
📊 2024 Monthly Avg (YTD): $1.98
📊 2023 Monthly Avg: $2.73
📊 2022 Monthly Avg: $6.64
📊 2021 Monthly Avg: $3.84
📈 Moving Averages:
Above 50-day ($2.00)
Above 20-day ($2.37)
Below 9-day ($2.60)
📉 Resistance: $2.65 / $2.72
📉 Pivot: $2.57
📉 Support: $2.43 / $2.35
BASIS:
PG&E CG & SoCal Basis: Down a penny or two today.
Monthly Averages:
PG&E CG '23: $9.83, '24: $3.51 (thru May)
SoCal CG '23: $10.95, '24: $3.29 (thru May)
SoCal Border '23: $8.14, '24: $2.65 (thru May)
Exports & Imports:
LNG Exports Avg: 12.9Bcf/D
Mexico Exports: 6.8Bcf
Canadian Imports: 5.7Bcf
Supply & Demand This Week:
Today's Est. Supply: 104.9Bcf
Supply 7 Day Avg: 104.1Bcf
Today's Est. Production: 99.7Bcf
Today's Est. Demand: 97.0Bcf
Demand 7 Day Avg: 95.5Bcf
RIG COUNT:
Total: 600 (-111 YoY)
Oil Rigs: 497 (unchanged)
Gas Rigs: 103 (-4)
Misc Rigs: 4 (unchanged)
STORAGE:
Current: 2,633Bcf (+421Bcf YoY, +620Bcf vs. 5-year avg)
Projections: Oct '24: 3.90Tcf, Mar '25: 1.70Tcf
WEATHER:
Storms over TX, FL, Great Lakes, NE
Triple digits in SW & West TX
Forecasts:
5-10 days: Bullish 📈
10-15 days: Bullish 📈
3 months: Bullish 📈
Summer (Jul-Sep): Bullish 📈
CRUDE:
Current Price: $77.68
2024 Est.: $76.41
2025 Est.: $72.51
2026 Est.: $69.15
CA RETAIL POWER:
CAISO Pricing: Just over $14/MWH
CARBON OFFSETS:
Offerings: $1 to $375 per unit 🌍
THE BOTTOM LINE:
NYMEX trends upward 📈
Demand is increasing 📊
CA Basis prices are falling nicely 📉
Expect continued volatility in CA Basis 🌡️

Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24
PG&E CG     SOCAL CG     SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH            $2.92         $2.79            $2.39
3 MONTHS          $3.54         $4.14            $3.80
6 MONTHS         $3.91          $4.54           $4.07
12 MONTHS       $4.79        $5.39            $4.79
24 MONTHS       $5.49         $6.35            $5.97
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.87        $4.54          $4.19
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$5.79          $6.34         $5.97