Feel The Burn, California, SW, and Texas!

Feel The Burn, California, SW, and Texas!


πŸ”₯ THE One Minute Energy Update for 6-5-24 πŸ”₯

#NYMEXUp
#PG&EBasisDown
#SoCalBasisDown
#CurrentWeatherBullish
#CarbonOffsets
NYMEX Pricing Today:
Open: $2.61
High: $2.71
Low: $2.61
Current: $2.74
Prices are up by $0.20 from last week.
NYMEX Calendar Year Estimates:
2024: $2.88
2025: $3.46
2026: $3.83
Average Monthly NYMEX Prices:
2024: $1.98
2023: $2.73
2022: $6.64
2021: $3.84
We are above the 50-day ($2.11), 20-day ($2.53), and 9-day ($2.60) averages.
Resistance: $2.75/$2.91 Pivot: $2.66 Support: $2.49/$2.40
🏷 Basis
Both PG&E CG Basis and SoCal CG Basis prices are down slightly today despite high temperatures across CA.
PG&E CG First of the Month Index:
2023: $9.83
2024: $3.51 (through May)
SoCal CG First of the Month Index:
2023: $10.95
2024: $3.29 (through May)
SoCal Border First of the Month Index:
2023: $8.14
2024: $2.65 (through May)
🌐 LNG Exports, NG Exports, NG Imports
LNG Exports: 13.0Bcf/D
Mexico Exports: 7.1Bcf
Canadian Imports: 5.3Bcf
πŸ“ˆ Production/Supply & Demand This Week
Supply Today: 104.0Bcf
7 Day Avg. Supply: 105.68Bcf
Production Today: 99.7Bcf
Demand Today: 97.0Bcf
7 Day Avg. Demand: 94.1Bcf
High demand through Thursday, light demand by the weekend.
πŸ›  Rig Count
Total: 600 (unchanged)
Oil Rigs: 496 (down 1)
Natural Gas Rigs: 100 (up 1)
Miscellaneous: 4 (unchanged)
Down 96 rigs from last year.
πŸͺ Storage
Estimated Injection: 86Bcf (compared to 105Bcf last year and 103Bcf 5-year avg)
Current Storage: 2,795Bcf (380Bcf above last year, 586Bcf above 5-year avg)
Projection: 3.87Tcf by Oct '24, 1.7Tcf for March '25
🌑 Weather
NatGasWeather forecasts:
Short Term: Warmer through Thursday, then cooling in the East.
5-10 Day Forecast: Bearish
10-15 Day Forecast: Bearish
3-Month Forecast: Bullish
Summer (Jul-Sep): Bullish
πŸ›’ Crude Oil
Current Price: $73.26 (down $1)
Forward Estimates:
2024: $72.49
2025: $69.76
2026: $67.00
⚑️ CA Retail Power
CAISO Pricing: Just over $14 per MWH
🌍 Carbon Offsets
California and other states may mandate carbon offsets starting 2025. Is your company ready? Get ahead of the demand for more options and better prices.
πŸ“Š Bottom Line
NYMEX is volatile within a $0.20 range. Basis is slightly down in the West. Upcoming bearish weather could push prices down, presenting opportunities for cheaper Basis and NYMEX. But remember, it's summerβ€”anything can happen!
Indicative Fixed Prices out of July ’24:
PG&E CG / SOCAL CG / SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS):
1 Month: $3.70 / $4.15 / $3.75
3 Months: $3.95 / $4.70 / $4.30
6 Months: $4.80 / $5.40 / $4.85
12 Months: $4.96 / $5.46 / $4.87
24 Months: $5.24 / $5.96 / $5.61
Summer Strip (Jul ’24 – Oct β€˜24):
$3.95 / $4.50 / $4.10
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25):
$5.80 / $6.25 / $5.80
Stay informed, stay ahead! πŸš€ #EnergyUpdate #DirectAccess #NaturalGas #MarketTrends #CarbonOffsets