Fundamentals still leaning towards bears

Current Pricing:

• NYMEX Natural Gas Futures:

  • Open: $1.78

  • High: $1.84

  • Low: $1.76

  • Current: $1.81

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Weekly and Annual Trends:

• Week-on-Week: Prices have shown a slight increase from last week's average of $1.75, indicative of emerging bullish sentiments.

• Year-on-Year: Current prices are moderately lower compared to the same period last year, when prices averaged around $2.10.

Market Influences:

• Supply Dynamics: Today’s estimated production is slightly up at 99.8Bcf, reflecting stable production levels amidst robust market conditions.

• Demand Factors: Estimated demand is at 94.5Bcf, with a notable increase due to cooler temperatures boosting residential heating needs.

Storage and Exports:

• Storage Levels: The latest EIA report indicates a storage injection of 48Bcf, slightly above the 5-year average for this time of year, leading to a total storage of 2,380Bcf.

• LNG Exports: LNG exports remain strong at 11.2Bcf/D, highlighting sustained international demand, particularly from Europe and Asia.

Technical Analysis:

• Support and Resistance: Immediate support is seen at $1.76, with resistance at $1.85. The market appears to be testing these levels as traders assess weather forecasts and supply stability.

Weather Impact:

• Short-Term Forecast: The upcoming week is expected to see varied temperatures across major consumption areas, potentially influencing demand patterns.

Market Sentiment:

• Investor Outlook: The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with traders closely monitoring weather developments and production rates.

Future Outlook:

• Pricing Projections: Analysts expect moderate volatility in the coming weeks with potential upward pressure if cooler temperatures persist longer than currently forecasted.