Good time to buy certain months...
THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-8-25
TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS
. NYMEX NG prices falling today despite tightening fundamentals and increasing heat.
. The bearish push may have something to do with production blowing past 108Bcf/D yesterday.
. Persistent heat keeps pushing up gas and power demand.
. LNG continues to set records, taking directly from the domestic mkt.
. Storage is above the 5-yr avg, but recent injections are tightening.
. Economic growth and overall usage everyday will push power prices to range averages we haven’t seen before.
. Options are needed now.
NYMEX
Sep ’25 – Open = $3.08, High = $3.10, Low = $3.02, Current = $3.05
+$0.07 from 1 week ago
+$1.05 from 1 year ago
50-day avg = $3.43
20-day avg = $3.25
9-day avg = $3.08
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.13 (R2) = $3.19
#PIVOT = $3.03
SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.99 (S2) = $2.88
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (Sep ’25 Start) = $3.68
Summer Balance ’25 (Sep – Oct) = $3.03
Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $3.94
Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.74
Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.31
Calendar ’26 = $3.92 Calendar ’27 = $3.85
Calendar ’28 = $3.79 Calendar ‘29 = $3.64
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru Aug ‘25
2025 = $3.50 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07
BASIS – Red is the dominant color today at delivery points. Pricewise, red is also winning today with more downward than upward movement. decent movement in both directions.
***Movers –***Tenn Z6 @ +$0.41 (12%). NW Sumas @ -$0.48 (32%).
#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.025
#SoCalCGBasis Today -$0.22
2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.41.
2024 avg = $4.02.
2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.84.
2024 avg = $4.49.
2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.02.
2024 avg = $3.72.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 15.5Bcf, +10.1% y/y.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.7Bcf
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.3Bcf
PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 108.7Bcf, +5.7% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 112.3Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 113.0Bcf
DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 103.2Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 107.2Bcf
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = High
WEATHER - TODAY = Wildfires continuing to burn across the West region with the latest being called the Canyon fire, in Ventura County, moving east towards LA County. Poor air quality for MI/OH/NY with increasing alerts for CA/AZ/WA/ID/NV. Rain along the northern border and Gulf/SE coastlines. Cooler for the northern half and hotter for the southern half. Blazing heat from San Diego across to Starkville.
6-10 Day = Bullish 8-14 Day = Bullish 30 Day = Bearish
Aug – Oct = Bearish Sep – Nov = Bearish Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS: Peak season begins.
Central Pacific = TS Henriette slowing moving towards Hawaii.
Eastern Pacific = TS Ivo moving north along the Baja Peninsula.
Atlantic = D1 @ 10%. D2 @ 50%.
RIG COUNT as of 8-1-25
Total = 540, -2 w/w.
Oil @ 410 rigs, - 5 w/w.
NatGas @ 124 rigs, +2 w/w.
Miscellaneous @ 6 rigs, +1 w/w.
Last year at this time @ 586.
STORAGE – Estimate for 8-7-25 = +18Bcf. Actual = +7Bcf
Last year = +21Bcf. 5-yr avg = +29Bcf.
-137Bcf compared to this time last year.
+173Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,957Bcf.
At 3,130Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.
Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.85Tcf.
CRUDE – Over supply and the possibility of easing geopolitical tension keeping prices down.
Prompt = $63.99, 2025 = $62.88, 2026 = $61.55, 2027 = $61.43
POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1325/kWh. Resi @ $0.1740/kWh.
Grids in the MW, South, and NE showing strain to keep up with increasing demand during elevated CCDs.
CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 7AM, PST, 8-8-25:
NG 31%, RE 33%, Hydro 7%, Imports 22%, Nuke 5%, Battery 0%.
CAISO Real-Time Price Range = -$9 to $54. Avg. = $42.
CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = -$53 to $42. Avg. = $35.
THE BOTTOM LINE
We’re buying up short-term months right now, waiting for higher priced months to fall, and we believe they will fall before they become prompt months.
RFP ES provides energy management and supply for the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie