LNG restrictions help push NYMEX prices down further

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/6/24

***#NYMEXDown #LNGHelpingCurrentMarket #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WestCoastWeatherImproving #DemandDown #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ***– NYMEX getting close to the $2.00 mark. There is a good chance we could see sub 42.00 today or this week.

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $2.06, High = $2.06, Low = $2.01, Current = $2.01. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.70 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.42 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.53, 2025 = $3.43, 2026 = $3.76. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.60), the 20-day ($2.56), and the 9-day ($2.24) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.07/$2.11. *

THE PIVOT* @ $2.03.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.99/$1.94. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are down so far today. *

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – The current pause in LNG projects and unscheduled maintenance (limiting exports) could be a short-term advantage for the domestic C&I market. The current NYMEX pricing certainly reflects that. On the flip side, limiting LNG projects and exports could discourage producers from producing as much as they might have originally intended. ONE of the great things about increasing LNG exports…. more natural gas production all around. *

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 109.3Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 109.92Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 102.8Bcf/D. *

Demand 7 Day Avg. = 118.80Bcf. Today’s expected demand = 122.3Bcf. Demand is still expected to be very low over the next 7 days.

***RIG COUNT – ***The next rig count comes out 2-9-24 after 10Am, PST. The latest rig count falls by 2 for a total of 619 active rigs. Oil rigs went unchanged for a total of 499 rigs. Natural gas rigs fell by 2 for a total of 117 rigs. The overall rig count is 20% below this time last year.

WEATHER* – Storms moving east from the Pac NW and West Coast. Potential storms are sitting off the East Coast for now. Warmer than normal temperatures should limit snowfall from the east moving storms. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = turning bullish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – We are currently only 54Bcf above last year at this time and 130Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,529Bcf for this time of year. At 2,659Bcf, working gas remains within the 5-year historical range. The next Storage Report is due out 2-8-24.*

***CRUDE – ****Steady around $73. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO sitting just above $54. That’s $9 higher than 4 days ago. *

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – It’s a great time to look at locking in NYMEX. Basis ***Prices are also worth looking at right now.

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.56 $4.01 $3.71

3 MONTHS $3.62 $4.00 $3.60

6 MONTHS $3.95 $4.75 $4.25

12 MONTHS $4.90 $5.90 $5.40

24 MONTHS $5.11 $5.95 $5.45

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$4.00 $4.85 $4.40