Look at that NYMEX run!!

Look at that NYMEX run!!


THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-16-24

#NYMEXUp     #PG&EBasisFlat     #SoCalBasisDown    #WeatherWeakening    #CarbonOffsets    

NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - Open = $2.40, High = $2.57, Low = $2.38, Current = $2.50.  NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.30 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.10 from 1 year ago. 

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.82, 2025 = $3.48, 2026 = $3.91.

2024 NYMEX Monthly Average (so far this year) = $1.98.  2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73.  2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64.  2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. 

We are above the 50-day ($1.87), the 20-day ($2.05) and the 9-day ($2.30) average.  

RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.50/$2.60. 

THE PIVOT @ $2.45. 

SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.34/$2.27. 

BASIS – PG&E CG Basis is flat so far today, down from where it has been for the past few weeks.  SoCal Basis continues to fall.        

The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. Currently averaging $3.51 through May ’24. 

The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95.  Currently averaging $3.29 through May ’24. 

The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14.  Currently averaging $2.65 through May ’24. 

LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS – LNG Exports = 12.3Bcf.  Mexico Exports = 6.6Bcf.  Canadian Imports = 5.4Bcf.

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND THIS WEEK – Today’s Est. Supply = 104.3Bcf.  Supply 7 Day Avg. = 102.3Bcf.  Today’s Est. Production = 95.2Bcf. 

Today’s Est. Demand = 95.2Bcf.  Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 96.1Bcf.  Low demand for the rest of the week.          

RIG COUNT – The latest rig count (5-10-24) has the following - oil rig count is down 3 rigs for a total of 496 active rigs. The natural gas rig count is up 1 for a total of 103 active rigs.  The miscellaneous rig count is unchanged at 4 active rigs.  Overall rig count = 603.  We are down 128 active rigs compared to this time last year.

STORAGE – This week’s estimate finished up at 79Bcf.  Last year was 93Bcf while the 5-year average is 90Bcf.  Today’s report shows an injection of only 70Bcf.  The market reacted with a $0.17 upward swing.  We are currently 421Bcf above this time last year and 620Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,013Bcf.  At 2,633Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range.  Storage is projected to be 3.90Tcf by Oct ’24 and 1.70Tcf for March ’25.  Early projection for next week’s storage report is an injection of 83Bcf.    

WEATHER – NatGasWeather’s latest forecast, “Texas will cool several degrees today as a weather system moves through, but thereafter, the southern 1/3 of the US will be very warm to hot as high-pressure rules w/highs of 80s and 90s, locally 100s Southwest. The northern 2/3 of the US will be comfortable w/highs of 60s-80s as weather systems bring showers.”

5 – 10-day forecast = bullish.  10-15-day forecast = bearish.  3-month forecast = bullish.  Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish.   

CRUDE – Down.  Current price = $78.64.  Forward estimates: 2024 = $77.11, 2025 = $72.96, 2026 = $69.41.   

CA RETAIL POWER – CAISO pricing falls to just over $30 per MWH. 

CARBON OFFSETS – We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit.  You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery. 

THE BOTTOM LINE – Same as yesterday (production down/LNG exports up/bullish summer weather forecasts PLUS a storage injection that came in well below estimates, last year’s injection, and the 5-year average for this time of year.  Basis remains a good buy.  If we’re waiting for NYMEX to fall below the $2.00 range, we may be waiting for some time. 

                         Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24                              

PG&E CG     SOCAL CG     SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH            $3.07          $3.06             $2.62

3 MONTHS          $3.68          $4.33             $4.10

6 MONTHS         $4.02           $4.68             $4.20

12 MONTHS        $4.88          $5.46             $4.89
24 MONTHS       $5.20          $5.88             $5.47

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.75           $4.48            $4.15

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$5.65           $6.22          $5.85