Monday NYMEX is flat!

Monday NYMEX is flat!

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/5/24

***#NYMEXNotMoving #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WestCoastWeatherisAMother #DemandDown #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ****– NYMEX is still flat since Friday. Is it picking a direction? If it is, my direction bet would be down. *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $2.11, High = $2.12, Low = $2.04, Current = $2.06. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.65 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.40 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.55, 2025 = $3.43, 2026 = $3.76. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.62), the 20-day ($2.62), and the 9-day ($2.31) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.11/$2.14. *

THE PIVOT* @ $2.06*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $2.03/$1.98. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Basis prices are mixed. PG&E CG is slightly up. SoCal CG is down a few cents for most months. *

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – Biden’s pause on natural gas mining and exporting is putting Europe’s dependency (and commitment) in a bad situation for Winter 2024/2025. So much so in fact that Europe is signing a 10-year deal with Algeria to buy gas because the Europeans need to be sure they will have gas supplies well ahead of time and not be victims of high-priced spot gas. This is getting way too political, and not a good way. Latest LNG export avg. = 14.0Bcf. *

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 109.9Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 10.05Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 103.1Bcf/D. *

Demand 7 Day Avg. = 118.54Bcf. Today’s expected demand = 121.0Bcf. Demand is expected to be very low over the next 7 days.

***RIG COUNT – ***The latest rig count falls by 2 for a total of 619 active rigs. Oil rigs went unchanged for a total of 499 rigs. Natural gas rigs fell by 2 for a total of 117 rigs. The overall rig count is 20% below this time last year.

WEATHER* – The Pac NW and West Coast continues to get soaked. Lot of flooding, mudslides, and a continued drenching is forecasted for the next few days. It’s all moving east so be prepared states east of the Peoples Republic of Californication. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – We are currently only 54Bcf above last year at this time and 130Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,529Bcf for this time of year. At 2,659Bcf, working gas remains within the 5-year historical range. The next Storage Report is due out 2-8-24.*

***CRUDE – ****Steadying around $73. OPEC is not too happy with our domestic production refusing to back down. Guess what, OPEC? You don’t us. *****

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ***Prices remain far better than the past year. Let’s take advantage of the current market. What else are you going to do this week, especially in the West? There’s no dining al fresco, car detailing, or canyon hikes for the next few days.

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.76 $4.15 $3.84

3 MONTHS $3.72 $4.10 $3.70

6 MONTHS $4.05 $4.85 $4.35

12 MONTHS $5.00 $6.00 $5.50

24 MONTHS $5.21 $6.05 $5.55

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$4.10 $4.95 $4.50