NatGas prices continue to fall

THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-21-25

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices are falling again to start this week.

. The Tariff Bear continues to help downward movement.

. Heating Demand Days in the northern half of the US to spring temps.

. Above avg storage injections expected for the next few weeks.

. Shoulder Season looks to be upon us.

. Don’t get too cocky – scheduled maintenance season is coming.

. Growing concerns on the instability of US power grids as data centers grow.

. #EnergyRogue makes a strong case for NatGas moving $2 in EITHER direction in 2025.

NYMEX

May ’25 – Open = $3.19, High = $3.22, Low = $3.12, Current = $3.16

-$0.11 from 1 week ago due to new prompt month

+$1.38 from 1 year ago due to new prompt month

+$0.88 from 2 yrs ago due to new prompt month

50-day avg = $3.89

20-day avg = $3.70

9-day avg = $3.41

RESISTANCE = (1) = $3.32 (2) = $3.40

#PIVOT = $3.12

SUPPORT = (1) = $3.10 (2) = $2.99

#NYMEX FORWARD STRIP ESTIMATES (BASED ON TODAY’S MARKET)

2025 = $3.7, 2026 = $4.10, 2027 = $3.80, 2028 = $3.63, 2029 = $3.51

#NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg Thru APRIL ‘25

2025 = $3.72

2024 = $2.26

2023 = $2.92

2022 = $6.64

2021 = $3.84

#BASIS – All but 2 delivery points are red this morning.  Minimal upward price movement on the 2 green delivery points while downward price movement is substantial at certain delivery points.

Tolar Hub @ +$0.13 (5%). El Paso Keystone @ -$1.57 (99%).

#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.23

#SoCalCGBasis Today -$0.465

2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through April ‘’25) = $3.76.

2024 avg = $4.02.

2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through April ’25) = $4.14.

2024 avg = $4.49.

2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through April ’25) = $3.33.

2024 avg = $3.72.

#LNG EXPORTS Est. = 15.8Bcf

#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.3Bcf

#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.9Bcf

#PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 105.9Bcf

#SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 110.5Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 111.5Bcf

#DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 103.9Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 102.3Bcf

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate.

#WEATHER - TODAY = Scattered storms across the Great Lakes.  More storms from East TX moving NNE to upstate NY. The rest of the NE can expect cool temps and clear skies.  The SE & Mid-Atlantic regions will feel above normal temps with increasing humidity. The Mid-Con will also be clear and cool. SW/West/Pac NW regions will enjoy seasonal temps and clear skies.

6-10 Day = Bearish      8-14 Day = Bearish         30 Day = Bearish

April – June = Bullish   Summer ’25 = Bullish Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish

#RIGCOUNT as of 4-17-25

Oil @ 481 rigs, +1

NatGas @ 98 rigs, +1

Miscellaneous @ 6 rigs, +1

Total = 585.

Last year at this time @619.

#STORAGE – 4-17-25 Estimate = +26Bcf. Actual = +16Bcf.

Last year = +24Bcf. 5-yr avg = +8Bcf.

-480Bcf compared to this time last year.

-74Bcf to the 5-year average of 1,920Bcf.

We are within the 5-year historical range of 1,846Bcf.

Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.

#CRUDE – Crude rallied late last week as trade deals lessen tariff concerns. Prices falling again to start the week as talks with Iran on limiting their export restrictions progress.

Cash = $64.66. 2025 = $62.71, 2026= $61.10, 2027 = $61.29.

#POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1111/kWh. Resi @ $0.1595/kWh.

The amount of power used by data centers has tripled over the last 10 yrs and is expected to triple over the next 3 yrs.

Commercial – Low = ND @ $0.09/kWh. High = HI @ $0.37/kWh.

Residential – Low = ND @ $0.09/kWh. High = HI @ $0.40/kWh.

CAISO Day-Ahead Price on 4-21-25 = -$10 - $335. Avg. = $37

CAISO Real-Time Price for 4-21-25 = -$115 - $120. Avg. = $31.

#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 5AM, PST, 4-21-25:

NG 18%, RE 21%, Hydro 15%, Imports 25%, Nuke 5%, Battery 14%.

THE BOTTOM LINE

#EnergyRogue (smart guys over there) paint a bullish picture where Canadian imports and stalling production could push prices up.  On the flip, they show where cheap cheaper coal becomes an option over NG for power gen, solar & batteries increase, and LNG exports drop by as much as 2Bcf/D. If you were hoping for a clear view of the balance of the yr, and into 2026, there isn’t one. But we know what to look for.

RFP ES now provides energy management and supply in the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie