NG Prices are Crashing

THE One Minute Energy Update FOR 7-23-25

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices falling for the 3rd straight day as half the US dels with extreme heat.

. 1 month price trend = $3.65. 1 yr ago = $2.12

. Weather forecasts shift to higher temperatures.

. Production averaging 107.2Bcf/D, breaking June’s record.

. Forecast of cooler temps thru 1st week of Aug pushing prices down.

. Extreme heat causing power outages in the SE region.

. Alternative energy (it’s far from “clean”) up 6% y/y, contributing 45.2% towards power generation. Fossil @ 54.8% contribution.

. LNG demand remains a bullish long-term factor.

. Current prices are still well above prices this time last year.

NYMEX

Aug ’25 – Open = $3.24, High = $3.26, Low = $3.12, Current = $3.12

-$0.45 from 1 week ago

+$0.91 from 1 year ago

50-day avg = $3.49

20-day avg = $3.41

9-day avg = $3.40

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.25 (R2) = $3.35

#PIVOT = $3.14

SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.13 (S2) = $3.05

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

12 months (Aug ’25 Start) = $3.86

Summer ’25 (Aug – Oct) = $3.30

Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $4.21

Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.95

Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.52

Calendar ’26 = $4.14          Calendar ’27 = $4.00

Calendar ’28 = $3.89          Calendar ‘29 = $3.77

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru July ‘25

2025 = $3.56        2024 = $2.26        2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64        2021 = $3.84        2020 = $2.07

BASIS – A 2nd straight day of red dominance at delivery points. Price movement is minimal on the green side, slightly more on the red side.

Movers – Westcoast S2 @ +$0.16 (64%). Tenn Z0 @ -$0.365 (14%).

#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.22

#SoCalCGBasis Today -$0.215

2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through July ’25) = $3.42.

2024 avg = $4.02.

2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through July ’25) = $3.85.

2024 avg = $4.49.

2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through July ’25) = $3.00.

2024 avg = $3.72.

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 14.9Bcf, -1.1% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.6Bcf

PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 107.2Bcf, +3.9% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 111.9Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 112.8Bcf

DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 104.3Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 105.1Bcf

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Very High to High

WEATHER - TODAY = Storms across the Plains/Mid-Con/Gulf regions. Possible flash floods for upper Mid-Con. Heat dome from TX to MN, soon to blanket the entire eastern half of the US. Hot on both coasts, cooler for the northern border. Triple digits for parts of SoCal and SW regions.

6-10 Day = Bullish       8-14 Day = Bullish           30 Day = Bullish         Aug – Oct = Bearish     Sep – Nov  = Bearish  Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS: 8 named storms are forecast for the remainder of the season, shifting El Nino.

Central Pacific = D1 @ 30% chance, SE of Hawaii

Eastern Pacific = D1 @ 30% chance, SE of Hawaii, same storm

Atlantic = D1 @ 10% chance, western Gulf region

RIG COUNT as of 7-18-25

Total = 544, +7 w/w

Oil @ 422 rigs, - 2 w/w

NatGas @ 117 rigs, +9 w/w

Miscellaneous @ 5 rigs, no change

Last year at this time @ 586.

STORAGE – Estimate for 7-17-25   = +53Bcf. Actual = +46Bcf

Last year = +18Bcf. 5-yr avg = +49Bcf.

-156Bcf compared to this time last year.

+178Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,874Bcf.

At 3,052Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.

Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.

Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.85Tcf.

CRUDE – Down for the 3rd straight day, prices hit 2-week low.

Prompt = $64.85, 2025 = $64.67, 2026 = $62.85, 2027 = $62.68

POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1325/kWh. Resi @ $0.1770/kWh.

Power generation hit news records first half of 2025. It will continue.

#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 6AM, PST, 7-23-25:

NG 25%, RE 20%, Hydro 14%, Imports 24%, Nuke 9%, Battery 6%.

CAISO Real-Time Price Range = $41 to $49. Avg. = $44.

CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = $5 to $53. Avg. = $42.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The current weather just isn’t strong enough to contend with falling demand, rising supply, and record setting production. Take advantage while you can. It’s likely we will see further dips and could see some very good opportunities for winter months after Aug ’25.

MANY MONTHS ARE BELOW $4 (PG&E) and $5 (SoCalGas).

RFP ES provides energy management and supply in the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie