NYMEX at a three year low

NYMEX at a three year low


THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/9/24

#StopTheLNGPause

***#NYMEXDownAgain! #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeatherTurning #RecordDemand #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ****– NYMEX falls to a 3 year low. *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.88, High = $1.88, Low = $1.84, Current = $1.84. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.20 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.55 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.43, 2025 = $3.38, 2026 = $3.76. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.55), the 20-day ($2.37), and the 9-day ($2.01) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.98/$2.05. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.92.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.85/$1.80. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are both down again today. *

*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports averaged 15Bcf/D this week. Expect this number to triple by 2030.*

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** ****Today’s Est. Supply = 11.9Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 110.0Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 104.4Bcf/D. *

*Demand - Today’s expected demand = 12.6Bcf. *

**RIG COUNT – **The next rig count comes out later today.

WEATHER* – The recent storm here in the West appears to be weakening while a storm heading for the Gulf region appears to be strengthening. Colder temperatures from the Pac NW and moving east. 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – We are now 187Bcf higher than we were last year and 248Bcf above the 5-year average 2,584Bcf. At 3,476Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. EIA projects to end the Withdrawal season at 1.942Tcf. This is the highest storage level projected since 2020. The 5-year average is 1.653Tcf. However, EIA slashed their end of season projection 2 weeks ago from 2.155Tcf to 1.905Tcf.*

***CRUDE – ****Running up this morning, jumping up to over $76.******Estimates - 2024 = $75.00, 2025 = $70.68, 2026 = $67.28. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO is just below $48MWH. *

***<s>UNRELIABLE</s>

RENEWABLE ENERGY – ****Arizona is changing direction on their renewable energy goals. It seems they realize their original goals/promises are unrealistic. We can expect more of this from other cities and states as we get closer to the promised due dates. *

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****We’re at 3-year lows for NYMEX. Well done to those who have transacted. To the rest, what are you waiting for? *

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $3.57 $3.97 $3.57

3 MONTHS $3.53 $3.96 $3.52

6 MONTHS $3.85 $4.67 $4.18

12 MONTHS $4.87 $5.87 $5.30

24 MONTHS $5.10 $5.95 $5.41

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.94 $4.81 $4.43