NYMEX Hits A Fourteen Week High
nymexnatural gas pricing

NYMEX Hits A Fourteen Week High


THE One Minute Energy Update for 5-7-24

#NYMEXHits14Week High #SummerMonthsUp #WinterMonthsDown$1.00+

***#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalBasisUp #WeatherBullish #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX Pricing So Far Today - ****Open = $2.20, High = $2.23, Low = $2.14, Current = $2.21. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.25 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.40 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.72, 2025 = $3.51, 2026 = $3.96.*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

*We are above the 50-day ($1.97), the 20-day ($1.85) and the 9-day ($1.80) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $2.31/$2.38. *

THE PIVOT* @ $2.17. *

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $2.14/$2.10. *

BASIS* – PG&E CG Basis continues to fall after 4 weeks of bullish movement. Heat in the SW is pushing SoCal CG Basis up right now for the summer months – should be temporary. *

*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. Currently averaging $3.51 through May ’24. *

*The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. Currently averaging $3.29 through May ’24. *

*The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. Currently averaging $2.65 through May ’24. *

***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ***– LNG Exports = 12.2Bcf. Mexico Exports = 6.5Bcf. Canadian Imports = 5.1Bcf.

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Supply continues to average 10Bcf/D more than demand on most days. Today’s Est. Supply = 104.9Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 105.51Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 99.2Bcf. Once daily production jumps above 100Bcf, we should see bears return. *

*Today’s Est. Demand = 94.5Bcf. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 94.28Bcf. Moderate demand through Thursday due to rising temperatures in the SW and Texas. Falling to light demand by the weekend. *

***RIG COUNT ***– The latest rig count (5-3-24) has the following - oil rig count is down 7 rigs for a total of 499 active rigs. The natural gas rig count fell by 3 for a total of 103 active rigs. Miscellaneous rig count increased by 2 rigs. Overall rig count = 605.

STORAGE* – Last week’s report shows an injection of 59Bcf. We are now 436Bcf above this time last year and 642Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,842Bcf. At 2,484Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *

WEATHER* – Most of the US will enjoy very nice spring weather. Everyone but you, Texas, and SW regions. Not to worry – cooler temps are on deck for the weekend for those two regions. Heavy storms rolling east from the Plains, with a lot of tornado action reported. Stay safe, people.*

*5 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bullish. 3-month forecast = bullish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *

CRUDE –* Flat. Current price = $82.85. Forward estimates: 2024 = $77.21, 2025 = $73.24, 2026 = $69.367. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO pricing falls to just over $21 per MWH. *

CARBON OFFSETS –* We have carbon offset offerings as low as $1 per unit to $375 per unit. You will find the perfect carbon offset to fit your carbon footprint recovery. *

***THE BOTTOM LINE ****– Short term opportunities are up as much as $0.40 from 1 week ago. Summer heat concerns are giving plenty of support to the short-term months. Winter strips are down over $1.00 from just 1 week ago. Do not panic. Market movement is constant. The best approach to avoiding volatility and minimizing risk - Read our updates on any of our information platforms, pay attention and execute when prices fall. Remember – we know more than the SALESPEOPLE you’re talking with. *

***Indicative Fixed Prices out of June ’24 ***

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)

1 MONTH $2.85 $2.93 $2.46

3 MONTHS $3.49 $4.21 $3.92

6 MONTHS $3.86 $4.55 $4.08

*12 MONTHS $4.75 $533 $4.91<br>

24 MONTHS $5.16 $5.84 $5.34*

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$3.60 $4.33 $3.98

Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)

$5.60 $6.12 $5.78