NYMEX Prices Are Up But Not For Long

NYMEX Prices Are Up But Not For Long

THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/16/24

***#NYMEXUpForTheFirstTimeInAWhile #PG&EBasisDown #SoCalGasBasisDown #WeekendWeatherTurningBullish #CarbonOffsets ***

***NYMEX ****– Going into the four-day weekend on the upswing! Take the day off and regroup next Wednesday. It should settle back down by then. *

***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.58, High = $1.63, Low = $1.57, Current = $1.62. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.30 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.85 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.18, 2025 = $3.28, 2026 = $3.66*

*2023 NYMEX Monthly Final Settle average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 average = $3.84. *

*We are below the 50-day ($2.43), the 20-day ($2.08), and the 9-day ($1.77) average. *

RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.64/$1.70. *

THE PIVOT* @ $1.60.*

SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.54/$1.51. *

*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are down again today for the day ahead pricing. Forward months are falling as quickly. We wait. Patience should pay off in the coming 2 to 6 weeks.*

The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. Current forward prices are well below

EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports are averaging 14.1Bcf/D so far this week.*

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** ****Today’s Est. Supply = 110.7Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 110.81Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 104.9Bcf. ****Demand ****- Today’s Est. Demand = 122.4Bcf. Demand 7-Day Avg. = 119.28Bcf/D. Demand expected to be high over the Holiday weekend. *

***RIG COUNT –***The next rig count comes out later today. Here’s an astute report/observation from a legitimate energy expert, John Kemp, “Ultra-low futures prices are sending the strongest possible signal about the need for a slowdown in drilling and production to help rebalance the market. The number of rigs drilling for gas averaged just 119 in January 2024, down from 162 in September 2022 - a delayed response to the fall in prices after they spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But the rig count has been broadly constant for the last five months and well productivity has continued to increase as companies focus on the most prospective locations and drill longer horizontal well sections. In addition, more gas is being produced and captured from wells drilled primarily to extract oil, adding to production growth. Dry gas production amounted to 3,178 bcf in November 2023 (the latest month for which data is available) which was 111 bcf (+4%) higher than in the same month a year earlier. Production in the first eleven months of 2023 was up by 1,339 bcf (+4%) compared with the same period in 2022.

*As of 2-9-24 – Overall rig count = 623, down from 761 active rigs from 1 year ago. The oil rig count is unchanged from last week’s count for a total of 499. Natural gas rigs increased by 4 rigs for a total of 121. *

WEATHER* – UPDATED 3 Month and Summer Outlooks!! NG Weather has this to say for 2-16-24 – 2-22-24, “Frosty air will spread across the Plains, Midwest, & Northeast this weekend into next week w/highs of 20s-40s, lows of 0s-20s. The rest of the US will be mild w/highs of 50s to 70s. A warm break will follow over much of the US for the middle of next week w/highs of 40s-50s across the northern US, and 50s-80s over the southern US. A cool shot will follow across the Midwest and Northeast late next week w/highs of 20s-40s. Overall, strong demand Sat-Mon, then back to light.” 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*

STORAGE* – new projections have end of Withdrawal Season levels up from 1.9Tcf to 2.1 – 2.2Tcf. Bearish! We are now 255Bcf higher than last year and 348Bcf above the 5-year average 2,187Bcf. At 2,535Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *

***CRUDE – ****Rallying due to a weak US Dollar.******Up another $0.55 from yesterday. Current price = $78.17. Forward estimates are down; 2024 = $75.98, 2025 = $71.28, 2026 = $67.83. *****

CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO stays just above $49MWH. *


RENEWABLE ENERGY – ***Why ruin a perfectly good Friday by talking about this energy source?

***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.

***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****We’re heading into a 4-day trading weekend. Historically, prices surge for the 4 days before market close. With storms moving through the MW towards the Northeast, that could be enough to move prices up. Don’t burn over your daily nominations and stay off daily spot price buying. We’ll see what Tuesday does in terms of weekend trading corrections and should be back on (a bearish) track by Wednesday. *