NYMEX Stays Bearish

THE One Minute Energy Update for 10-23-24

Testing

#NYMEX

NOV ’24 –

Open = $2.30, High = $2.34, Low = $2.25, Current = $2.33

Previous Day = $2.31

-$0.05 from 1 week ago.

-$0.45 from 1 year ago.

#NYMEX STRIPS ESTIMATES

2025 = $3.15, 2026 = $3.55, 2027 = $3.62, 2028 = $3.55, 2029 = $3.48.

2024 NYMEX Monthly Avg. (through Oct ‘24) = $2.18.

2023 NYMEX Monthly Average = $2.73.

2022 NYMEX Monthly Average = $6.64.

2021 NYMEX Monthly Average = $3.84.

We are above the 50-day avg. ($2.36), below the 20-day avg. ($2.66) and below the 9-day ($2.46) avg.

#RESISTANCE = $2.34/$2.40

#PIVOT = $2.24

#SUPPORT = $2.20/$2.12

#BASIS – Delivery points are mixed this morning.

Extreme Basis Movers –

Agua Dulce +$0.415 (35%).  El Paso Plains -$0.085 (7%)

#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.05

#SoCalCGBasis Today -$0.35

2024 PG&E CG FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $3.23.

2023 avg = $9.83.

2024 SoCal CG FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $2.88.

2023 avg = $10.95.

2024 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $2.37.

2023 avg = $8.14.

#LNG EXPORTS = 11.8Bcf, -10.6%W/W

#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.3Bcf

#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.3Bcf

#PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 101.2Bcf, -2.9%Y/Y

#SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 107.7Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 107.8Bcf

#DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 97.9Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 100.5Bcf

7 Day Demand Forecast = Low

#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE

#PACIFIC = TS Kristy continue to move west away from any land.

#WEATHER

Today = Bearish.  6 - 10-day = Bullish.  10 - 15-day = Bullish.

Oct - Dec = Bearish.  Nov – Jan = Bearish. Dec ’24 – Feb ’25 = Bearish.

#RIGCOUNT as of 10-18-24

Oil + 1 @ 482 rigs,

NatGas - 2 @ 99 rigs,

Miscellaneous @ 4 rigs.

Total = 585.

Last year this time @624.

#STORAGE

We are currently 107Bcf higher than this time last year, 163Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,542Bcf.  At 3,705Bcf, we are within the 5-year historical range.  Storage Level Projections - end of Oct ’24 = 3.80Tcf.  March ’25 = 1.90Tcf.

#CRUDE

Up*.  Current Cash price = $70.21.  Forward Estimates: 2024 = $73.53, 2025 = $71.22, 2026 = $68.83, 2027 = $67.54.*

#POWER

. EIA boasts Solar contributions will increase from 4% in 2024 to 7% in 2025.  Big whoop.

. Coal to power gen expected to increase throughout the winter months.

CAISO Grid Status = Normal.

CAISO price range as of 1PM, 10-22-24 = -$44 - $138.  Avg. = $22.

CAISO price range as of 5AM, 10-23-24 = -$72 - $48. Avg. = $37.

#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 5AM, PST, 10-23-24 – NatGas 45%, RE 6%, Hydro 7%, Imports 10%, Nuclear 7%.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG moving down this morning.

. A shift in weather forecasts is pushing prices down today.

. Cooler forecasted weather has prices on a slight rebound.

. Power demand continues to increase Y/Y.

. WHEN Withdrawal Season starts, first few reports expected to be lower than avg.

. LNG Exports to Europe down Y/Y, increase to China Y/Y.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Demand remains below normal.  Pipeline maintenance is wrapping up.  Weather driven supply/production interruptions are fading.  Weather is bearish.  Production is slightly down but that’s because prices are so low.

With 1 week left in Oct ’24, and driving factors being as bearish as they are, we could see a further drop in price for the front months once we get into Nov ’24.

RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, UT, CA, NV, AZ, NM, (parts of) TX, and PJM, Mid-Con, Gulf States, and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com

X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie