RFP Energy Nightcap for 8-13-25

NatGas

Trading range: $2.78 to $2.84, down 18% m/m.

Relatively flat market today as traders try to pick a direction. We think tomorrow’s storage injection will help in choosing a direction.

LNG

Exports averaged 14.6Bcf/D for Q1 & Q2 of 2025. That number is expected to increase by as much as 3Bcf/D within 12 months.

We’re already outpacing 14.6Bcf/D in Aug ’25. Just wait until maintenance season ends.

Power

U.S. power generation for the week ending 8-2-25 was up 1% y/y, with total output for the past 12 months increasing by 2.7% y/y. Commercial sector demand is projected to rise 3% in 2025, driven by increased data center demand. That will be the smallest % increase, y/y, for the foreseeable future.

Higher humidity (air you can wear) and ongoing heat in parts of the U.S. continue to strain power grids, particularly in the NE, Mid-Con, and SE regions.

Recent emergency actions in PJM highlighted reliability concerns during persistent regional heatwaves. Anyone worried about the Texas grid system this coming winter?

The Drivers

Production gains of 3Bcf/D in Aug ’25 paired with reduced power-gen demand have created a supply-side advantage, keeping near-dated gas futures subdued, and expected to fall further once the heat wave passes through.

Strong growth in LNG exports is a structural driver of higher gas prices and will impact power prices in Q4 ’25, 2026, and beyond.

Drilling activity is up 18% since April ’25.

Today’s Specials

New York approved rules for all-electric new buildings starting in 2026, accelerating the push for electrification and likely impacting future electricity demand. Now all NY must do is get their power grid up to passing grade standards and all is well. Buy cogens and candles, NY.

Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap