THE One Minute Energy Report

10/12/23

#NYMEX #NYMEXflat #NaturalGas #Energy #DropinDemandComing #CABasis #AlisoCanyon #IncreaseInOperationalFlowOrders

NYMEX* – Today’s open = $3.38, high = $3.39, low = $3.36, currently sitting @ $3.37. Nov ’23 is as flat as flat can be so far today, even with a weak storage injection report. Less than $0.01 movement through June ’26. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.40 from 1 week ago. Down approximately $3.20 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX CALENDAR ESTIMATES* - $3.51 for 2023, $3.62 for 2024, $4.06 for 2025. *

RESISTANCE* - Starting @ $3.45. SUPPORT - Starting @ $3.28. *

PRODUCTION & DEMAND* - Production = 100.9BCF/D, down 0.1Bcf from the previous year, right at the 30-day average. Demand = 94.4BCF/D, down 7.7Bcf from the previous year. Up 1.9Bcf versus the 3-year average of 92.47Bcf. *

**RIG COUNT – ***Last week’s rig count fell for a third straight week. Overall, the rig count is down 19% from this time last year, and the lowest since Feb ’22. Next rig count comes out 10-13-23. *

BASIS* – Both PG&E CG and SoCal Basis now enter their FIFTH straight day of a downward correction. Nov ’23 is down as much as $0.05 from yesterday. The downward overcorrection we’ve been anticipating looks like it will continue as weather improves, and as we get closer to injections into Aliso Canyon on 10-21-223. Until then, we are seeing a higher number of OFOs being called due to pipeline constraints.*

WEATHER* – Cooler temperatures across the US with rain in the Northern Plains and Southeast regions. *

STORAGE* – The latest estimates ranged from 90Bcf – 95Bcf. The actual injection reported today is a weak 84Bcf. We’re now 316Bcf above last year at this time and only 163Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,366Bcf. At 3,529Bcf, we are within the 5-year historical range. We’re usin more natgas as the overall power demand increases across the board. We need higher daily production to offset the bullish behavior in the natgas market brought on by increasing power demand.*

**Indicative Fixed Prices out of Nov ‘23 **

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.53 BTS)

1 MONTH $6.58 $8.34 $6.87

3 MONTHS $8.70 $9.97 $8.64

6 MONTHS $7.58 $8.32 $7.26

12 MONTHS $6.43 $7.09 $5.57

24 MONTHS $6.26 $7.01 $5.99

Winter Strips (Nov ’23 – March ‘24)

$8.13 $9.04 $7.39

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$5.25 $5.74 $4.11