The Nightcap for 7-24-25

NatGas

Trading range: $3.066–$3.166, Settled at $3.077 — close to a 3-month low.

End of Day Change – declined slightly amid strong production & supply.

Still up 45% Y/Y.

LNG

Averaging 16.5 Bcf/D, up 2.7% W/W - still below record levels as maintenance winds down.

Export activity: averaged 13.1Bcf for June ’25.

Outlook: Strong LNG flows, but not enough to offset bearish weather and output factor.

Power

Average demand for the US is up 5.6% Y/Y.

Pricewise, PJM hits a new record of $329/MW, up 22% Y/Y.

Structural demand growth from hyperscale data centers and resilient summer cooling needs are pushing power prices higher, with regional reliability facing tighter margins. Record prices at capacity auctions suggest continued upward pressure.

Looking Ahead

Storage and production fundamentals are expected to keep prices rangebound.

Further price moves depend on weather shifts and global LNG demand changes.

Producers signaling higher output for 2025 to meet growing LNG and power sector needs.

The Drivers

Surging power needs for data centers support higher prices for NG and Power.

Production set records in June (106.6Bcf/D) and that record will be smashed in July.

In Summation

Key factors like late-summer weather patterns, export dynamics, and grid reliability will determine what’s next for NG, Power and LNG sectors.

The selloff in July’s final trading days is attributed to robust production, ample storage, and moderate weather-driven demand.

NG prices continue to dictate power prices.

Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap