THE One Minute Energy Update for...

THE 1 Minute Energy Update for 12/8/23

#NYMEXRemainsBearish #PG&EBasisDownSlightly #SoCalGasBasisFallingFurther #Energy #WeatherBearish #NaturalGasDemandDown #LNGExportsDown

NYMEX – We remain well below the 50-day ($3.04), 20-day ($2.85), and 9-day ($2.69) averages.

Today’s opening price for Jan ‘24 = $2.55, high = $2.61, low = $2.53, currently sitting @ $2.57. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.22 from 1 week ago and down approximately $3.15 from 1 year ago.

2022 NYMEX Monthly Final Settle averaged $6.64. 2021 averaged $3.84. 2020 averaged $2.07.

NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES – 2024 = $2.75, 2025 = $3.55, 2026 = $3.76.

RESISTANCE – Starting @ $2.64/$2.69.

SUPPORT - Starting @ $2.56/$2.50.

PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND – Today’s Supply = 110.7Bcf/D. Supply 7 Day Avg = 109.3Bcf. Production = 105Bcf/D. Daily production for Winter 2023/2024 is expected to average 101.7Bcf/D.

Demand 7 Day avg. = 118.9Bcf.

RIG COUNT - The next rig count will be released later today. We are currently 20% below where we were this time last year.

BASIS – PG&E Basis falling further. SoCal Basis falling further. Basis is falling at a very tricky time of year. Any disruption to the current conditions and we could endure a prolonged bull run on Basis.

LNG EXPORTS – Latest average = 14.1Bcf/D. Nov ’23 averaged 14.3Bcf/D, up 0.06Bcf/D from Oct ‘23’s average of 13.7Bcf/D.

WEATHER – Chillier than yesterday for most of the U.S. The 6 – 10-day forecast shows above normal for the West, Rockies, Plains. Near normal for the rest of the U.S. The 10-15-day forecast shows above normal for all of the U.S., except for south Texas and Florida which are forecasted to be near normal.

STORAGE – We are 254Bcf higher than this time last year, and 234Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,485Bcf. At 3,719Bcf, total working gas remains within the 5-year historical range.

Indicative Fixed Prices out of Jan ‘24

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.53 BTS)

1 MONTH $5.30 $5.876 $5.60

3 MONTHS $4.85 $5.19 $4.81

6 MONTHS $4.41 $4.67 $4.41

12 MONTHS $4.85 $5.56 $5.15

24 MONTHS $5.19 $5.99 $5.65

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$4.40 $5.02 $4.66