THE One Minute Energy Update for 11-5-24

THE One Minute Energy Update for 11-5-24

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#NYMEX

DEC ’24 –

Open = $2.78, High = $2.81, Low = $2.74, Current = $2.78

Previous Day = $2.78

New Prompt Month from 1 week ago

-$0.05 from 1 year ago

- $3.95 from 2 years ago.

#NYMEX STRIPS ESTIMATES

2025 = $3.07, 2026 = $3.62, 2027 = $3.72, 2028 = $3.66, 2029 = $3.52.

2024 NYMEX Monthly Avg. (through Oct ‘24) = $2.18

2023 NYMEX Monthly Average = $2.73

2022 NYMEX Monthly Average = $6.64

2021 NYMEX Monthly Average = $3.84

We are above the 50-day avg. ($2.42), the 20-day avg. ($2.49) and the 9-day ($2.40) avg.

RESISTANCE = $2.71/$2.79

#PIVOT = $2.64

#SUPPORT = $2.53/$2.43

#BASIS – Delivery points are split down the middle this morning, showing equal green and red.

Extreme Basis Movers –

El Paso S. Mainline +$0.39 (47%).  El Paso Keystone - $2.68 (N/A)

#PG&ECGBasis Today +$0.04

#SoCalCGBasis Today +$0.17

2024 PG&E CG FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $3.23.

2023 avg = $9.83.

2024 SoCal CG FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $2.88.

2023 avg = $10.95.

2024 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg through Oct ’24 = $2.37.

2023 avg = $8.14.

#LNG EXPORTS = 13.7Bcf

#MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.1Bcf

#CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.1Bcf

#PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 103.0Bcf, - 1Bcf y/y.

#SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 107Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 107.27Bcf

#DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 98.6Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 98.7Bcf

7 Day Demand Forecast = Light to Very Light

#RIGCOUNT as of 11-1-24

Oil - 1 @ 479 rigs,

NatGas + 1 @ 102 rigs,

Miscellaneous @ 4 rigs.

Total = 585.

Last year this time @618.

#STORAGE

We are currently 107Bcf higher than this time last year, 178Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,685Bcf.  At 3,863Bcf, we are within the 5-year historical range.  Storage Level Projections - end of Oct ’24 = 3.950Tcf.  March ’25 = 1.60Tcf.

#HURRICANE SEASON UPDATE – NEXT 48 HOURS

#ATLANTIC = TS Rafael just south of Cuba.

#PACIFIC = D1 w/60% chance.

#WEATHER

Today = Cooler temps for the Pac NW/ Rockies/Plains/Northern Great Lakes regions.  Normal temps for the West/Texas/Mid-con regions.  Above normal temps for the SE/Mid-Atlantic/NE regions.  Storms in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Gulf/Montana regions.

6 - 10-day = Bearish.  10 - 15-day = Bearish.

Oct - Dec = Bearish.  Nov – Jan = Bearish. Dec ’24 – Feb ’25 = Bearish.

#CRUDE – Up a tad

. OPEC delays output increase on weak Asia consumption.

Dec ’24 = $71.1.  Forward Estimates: 2024 = $69.69, 2025 = $68.07, 2026 = $66.42, 2027 = $65.28.

#POWER

. W&S combined generation = 19%, up 24% from last year.

. Demand up 0.5% from last year.

CAISO Grid Status = Normal.

CAISO price range as of 1PM, 11-4-24 = -$49 - $50.  Avg. = $18.

CAISO price range as of 5AM, 11-5-24 = $34 - $48.  Avg. = $35.

#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 2PM, PST, 11-4-24…

NatGas 11%, RE 65%, Hydro 2%, Imports 12%, Nuclear 8%.

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices look to be flat so far this morning.

. Total demand continues to increase Y/Y.

. TS Rafael’s bringing support to higher prices as it tracks towards GoM.

. Bears are looking to dominate.

THE BOTTOM LINE

We expect both NYMEX and Basis prices to continue to be bearish even with TS Rafael forecasted to move into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.  We could see some upward movement over the next few days but, in my opinion, it will be temporary.  Bears stronger than bulls right now.

Leaving this up for 1 more day - Election Related – a lot of people are concerned about the price of energy after the election, depending on who takes office.  We believe energy prices will gain support regardless of who takes office.  Harris = war on fossil/price goes up.  Trump = more fossil to export/price goes up.  It will take a while for either to take place, but prices will increase.

RFP ES is now providing energy in WA, OR, UT, CA, NV, AZ, NM, (parts of) TX, and PJM, Mid-Con, Gulf States, and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal, 310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com

X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie