THE One Minute Energy Update for 7-2-25

THE One Minute Energy Update FOR 7-2-25

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices moving back up after hitting 5-week lows.

. FERC predicts Summer ’25 power demand will be 3.2% above 5-yr avg.

. July expected to see particularly strong demand.

. NYMEX Spot @ $3.39.  2025 Q1 avg spot @ $4.15, highest since 2022.

. Storage levels 6% above 5-yr avg.

. LNG Exports ramping back up after some maintenance is completion.

. The “experts” still believe spot prices to increase over the summer.

. FERC slashes red tape to speed up NG interstate and export projects.

. Storage injections continue to outpace last year and 5-yr averages.

NYMEX

Aug ’25 – Open = $3.41, High = $3.48, Low = $3.36, Current = $3.48

-$0.14 from 1 week ago

+$1.04 from 1 year ago

50-day avg = $3.46

20-day avg = $3.63

9-day avg = $3.54

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.49 (R2) = $3.60

#PIVOT = $3.41

SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.31 (S2) = $3.21

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

12 months (Aug ’25 Start) = $3.97

Summer ’25 (Aug – Oct) = $3.45

Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $4.35

Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $4.03

Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.54

Calendar ’26 = $4.21          Calendar ’27 = $3.98

Calendar ’28 = $3.81          Calendar ‘29 = $3.75

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru June ‘25

2025 = $3.54        2024 = $2.26        2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64        2021 = $3.84        2020 = $2.07

BASIS –Big reversal from yesterday with most delivery points showing pricing in the red.  Limited upward price movement today. Decent downward price movement.

Movers – PNGTS @ +$0.25 (7%). Westcoast Station @ -$0.43 (46%).

#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.13

#SoCalCGBasis Today -$0.31

2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through June ’25) = $3.44.

2024 avg = $4.02.

2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through June ’25) = $3.80.

2024 avg = $4.49.

2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through June ’25) = $2.95.

2024 avg = $3.72.

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 15.8Bcf, +9.3% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.0Bcf

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.4Bcf

PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 106.6Bcf, +3.3% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 110.8Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 111.5Bcf

DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 107.1Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 102.1Bcf

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = High falling to Moderate

WEATHER - TODAY = Storms across the Rockies/SW/TX/Gulf/ SE/Mid-Atlantic/Great Lakes regions.  Increasing heat across the US with most regions seeing above normal temperatures.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS:

Eastern Pacific = (D1) Flossie @ 50% off the coast of southern Mexico.

Atlantic = D1 @ 40% across the FL/GA/Carolina coastlines.

RIG COUNT as of 6-20-25

Total = 547. – 7 w/w

Oil @ 432 rigs, - 6 w/w

NatGas @ 109 rigs, -2 w/w

Miscellaneous @ 6 rigs, +1 w/w

Last year at this time @ 581.

STORAGE – Estimate for 7-3-25   = +49Bcf. Actual = TBD

Last year = +49Bcf. 5-yr avg = +61Bcf.

-196Bcf compared to this time last year.

+179Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,719Bcf.

At 2,898Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.

Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.80Tcf.

Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 3.10Tcf.

CRUDE – A weakening US $ and concerns over Iran boost prices ever so slightly.

Prompt = $66.00, 2025 = $63.39, 2026 = $61.55, 2027 = $61.84.

POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1320/kWh. Resi @ $0.1700/kWh.

We’re seeing record highs in cost for both Resi and C&I sectors. This will continue until nuclear plants are ready to generate, 5 to 10 years out.

#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 7AM, PST, 7-2-25:

NG 24%, RE 43%, Hydro 8%, Imports 17%, Nuke 8%, Battery 0%.

CAISO Real-Time Price Range = $22 to $40. Avg. = $32.

CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = $32 to $55. Avg. = $44.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Great examples were seen yesterday of market movement – NY MEX plummets and Basis jumps up. One day later, switch it. Same as yesterday - More reason for us to buy NYMEX and Basis separately rather than rolling it up into a fixed price (NYMEX & Basis) and having to eat the premium attached to a rally on one of the 2 products.

RFP ES provides energy management and supply in the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie