THE One Minute Energy Update for 7-25-25
TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS
. NYMEX NG prices are up ever so slightly. Expecting a drop by day’s end.
. NYMEX NG prices are down 12% from l1 month ago.
. Massive heatwave coming for the eastern half of the US followed by cooler temps – traders seemed focused on the cooler temps.
. LNG expected to return to full capacity by early Aug ’25.
. Talk of Iran closing Strait of Hormuz could have significant impacts on US LNG demand as well as US domestic pricing.
. Supply has been flat for the past week as slightly higher production is cancelled out by reduced imports form Canada.
NYMEX
Aug ’25 – Open = $3.11, High = $3.14, Low = $3.06, Current = $3.10
-$0.50 from 1 week ago
+$0.98 from 1 year ago
50-day avg = $3.46
20-day avg = $3.36
9-day avg = $3.34
RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.19 (R2) = $3.28
#PIVOT = $3.09
SUPPORT = (S1) = $3.05 (S2) = $2.95
NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS
12 months (Aug ’25 Start) = $3.77
Summer ’25 (Aug – Oct) = $3.18
Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $4.12
Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.88
Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.42
Calendar ’26 = $4.06 Calendar ’27 = $3.94
Calendar ’28 = $3.88 Calendar ‘29 = $3.80
NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru July ‘25
2025 = $3.56 2024 = $2.26 2023 = $2.73
2022 = $6.64 2021 = $3.84 2020 = $2.07
BASIS – Delivery points are showing more green than red today. Pricewise, far more downward movement than upward movement.
Movers – El Paso Plains @ +$0.23 (14%). E Hereford @ -$1.75 (27%).
#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.145
#SoCalCGBasis Today +$0.15
2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through July ’25) = $3.42.
2024 avg = $4.02.
2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through July ’25) = $3.85.
2024 avg = $4.49.
2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through July ’25) = $3.00.
2024 avg = $3.72.
LNG EXPORTS Est. = 15.8Bcf, + 2.8% w/w.
MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.5Bcf
CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.6Bcf
PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 107.1Bcf, +2.9% y/y.
SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 113.3Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 112.9Bcf
DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 106.8Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 105.3Bcf
7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Very High to Moderate
WEATHER - TODAY = Flash flood warnings remain in effect for the SW region. Scattered storms across the Plains/Mid-Con/Gulf regions. Triple digit advisories for the eastern half of the US as well as the SW region. Coolest temps will be found in the Pac NW and New England regions, even dipping below 80 in some parts.
6-10 Day = Bearish 8-14 Day = Bearish 30 Day = Bullish
Aug – Oct = Bearish Sep – Nov = Bearish Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS: 8 named storms are forecast for the remainder of the season, shifting El Nino.
Central Pacific = D1 @ 40% chance
Eastern Pacific = D1 @ 40% chance. D2 @ 20% chance.
Atlantic = D1 @ 10% chance, making landfall in TX/LA.
RIG COUNT as of 7-18-25 – up nearly 7% Y/Y
Total = 544, +7 w/w
Oil @ 422 rigs, - 2 w/w
NatGas @ 117 rigs, +9 w/w
Miscellaneous @ 5 rigs, no change
Last year at this time @ 586.
STORAGE – Estimate for 7-24-25 = +23Bcf. Actual = +23Bcf
Last year = +20Bcf. 5-yr avg = +20Bcf.
-153Bcf compared to this time last year.
+171Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,904Bcf.
At 3,075Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.
Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.
Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.85Tcf.
CRUDE – Optimism in trade talks supporting greater energy demand.
Prompt = $66.26, 2025 = $64.91, 2026 = $63.31, 2027 = $62.93
POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1325/kWh. Resi @ $0.1770/kWh.
C&I sector demand holding steady while Resi shows slight increase Y/Y.
#CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 6AM, PST, 7-25-25:
NG 22%, RE 24%, Hydro 13%, Imports 29%, Nuke 9%, Battery 1%.
CAISO Real-Time Price Range + $28 to $34. Avg. = $30.
CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = $15 to $52. Avg. = $40.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Severe heat across the US has CDDs elevated, power grids maxing out, and yet prices fail to rally to levels previously seen in these conditions. We could see serious downward price pressure once we get through the summer heat and BEFORE any winter threats come into play.
RFP ES provides energy management and supply in the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.
Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,
310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie