THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-11-25

THE One Minute Energy Update - 8-11-25

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices falling further this morning after prices collapsed after trading hours on Friday.

. We’re down 16% m/m, and only 33% above this time last year.

. Last year pricing was a fluke.  Holding out for last yr’s prices could end badly for you.

. Daily production passes 109Bcf, outpacing current demand.

. Permian and Appalachia production increases are to thank.

. Storage is above 6.7% above the 5-yr avg, making some comfortable with the supplies going into the winter season.

. That’s still no reason to go into the winter season with open positions.

NYMEX

Sep ’25 – Open = $2.89, High = $3.00, Low = $2.88, Current = $2.98

-$0.02 from 1 week ago

+$0.83 from 1 year ago

50-day avg = $3.42

20-day avg = $3.22

9-day avg = $3.05

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.03 (R2) = $3.11

#PIVOT = $2.91

SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.85 (S2) = $2.75

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

12 months (Sep ’25 Start) = $3.67

Summer Balance ’25 (Sep – Oct) = $3.03

Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $3.94

Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.73

Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.30

Calendar ’26 = $3.90          Calendar ’27 = $3.84

Calendar ’28 = $3.75          Calendar ‘29 = $3.67

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru Aug ‘25

2025 = $3.50        2024 = $2.26        2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64        2021 = $3.84        2020 = $2.07

BASIS – More red than green today at delivery points. Pricewise, far more downward movement than upward movement.

Movers – Algonquin @ +$0.68 (23%). El Paso Waha @ -$0.57 (53%).

#PG&ECGBasis Today -$0.08

#SoCalCGBasis Today -$0.02

2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.41.

2024 avg = $4.02.

2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.84.

2024 avg = $4.49.

2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.02.

2024 avg = $3.72.

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 15.5Bcf, - 0.8% w/w.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 7.1Bcf

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 5.4Bcf

PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 109.2Bcf, +6.3% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 112.8Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 113.2Bcf

DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 103.6Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 107.4Bcf

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = High

WEATHER - TODAY = Wildfire risk remains elevated over CA/OR/WA/NV/AZ/CO. Parts of the MW/Plains regions still under severe flash flood watch. Air quality form fires in Canada improving. Rain across the Plains/Mid-Con/Gulf/SE/Carolinas. 70s & 80s along the northern border. 80s – 90s for the middle and SE regions. 100s for SoCal/SW regions.

6-10 Day = Bullish          8-14 Day = Bullish        30 Day = Bullish

Aug – Oct = Bearish     Sep – Nov  = Bearish  Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS: Peak season begins.

Central Pacific = TS Henriette passing to the north of Hawaii.

Eastern Pacific = TS Ivo moving west from the Baja Peninsula.

Atlantic = D1 @ 90%. D2 @ 20%.

RIG COUNT as of 8-8-25

Total = 539, -1 w/w.

Oil @ 411 rigs, + 1 w/w.

NatGas @ 123 rigs, - 1 w/w.

Miscellaneous @ 6 rigs, - 1w/w.

Last year at this time @ 588.

STORAGE – Estimate for 8-7-25   = +18Bcf. Actual = +7Bcf

Last year = +21Bcf. 5-yr avg = +29Bcf.

-137Bcf compared to this time last year.

+173Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,957Bcf.

At 3,130Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.

Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.

Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.85Tcf.

CRUDE – down to 2-month lows. Geopolitics, supply and demand are the driving factors.

Prompt = $63.92, 2025 = $62.81, 2026 = $61.40, 2027 = $61.19

POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1325/kWh. Resi @ $0.1740/kWh.

Gas generated power demand fell 15% w/w due to cooler temps nationally.

CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 7AM, PST, 8-11-25:

NG 33%, RE 42%, Hydro 5%, Imports 12%, Nuke 5%, Battery 0%.

CAISO Real-Time Price Range = $35 to $45. Avg. = $38.

CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = -$36 to $140. Avg. = $33.

THE BOTTOM LINE

We are seeing prices fall to unexpected levels, especially given the elevated demand from heat, and increased LNG exports. Remember our approach – greed is good, gluttony kills. We have a football season about to begin so go gamble on that.

RFP ES provides energy management and supply for the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie