THE One Minute Energy Update for 8-6-25

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices up for the second straight day.

. Production remains strong.

. LNG exports & supportive short-term weather charts having little bullish impact for now.

. Cooling demand expected to wind down over the next 30 days.

. Storage remains above the 5-yr avg and is near last year’s level.

. NatGas demand for power gen remains over 45%.

. Expect NatGas demand to increase as the days grow shorter & darker, pushing power gen from Solar down.

NYMEX

Sep ’25 – Open = $3.01, High = $3.05, Low = $2.94, Current = $3.05

+$0.01 from 1 week ago

+$1.05 from 1 year ago

50-day avg = $3.43

20-day avg = $3.24

9-day avg = $3.07

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.10 (R2) = $3.18

#PIVOT = $3.00

SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.95 (S2) = $2.89

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

12 months (Sep ’25 Start) = $3.68

Summer Balance ’25 (Sep – Oct) = $3.03

Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $3.94

Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.74

Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.30

Calendar ’26 = $3.92          Calendar ’27 = $3.85

Calendar ’28 = $3.77          Calendar ‘29 = $3.66

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru Aug ‘25

2025 = $3.50        2024 = $2.26        2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64        2021 = $3.84        2020 = $2.07

BASIS – All but a handful of delivery points are green today. Pricewise, limited upward movement with strong downward movement on the few delivery points that are red.

Movers – Stanfield @ +$0.37 (18%). Emerson @ -$0.24 (48%).

#PG&ECGBasis Today +$0.12

#SoCalCGBasis Today +$0.105

2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.41.

2024 avg = $4.02.

2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.84.

2024 avg = $4.49.

2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.02.

2024 avg = $3.72.

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 15.5Bcf, +3.9% y/y.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.7Bcf

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.3Bcf

PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 108.0Bcf, +3.4% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 114.1Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 113.4Bcf

DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 103.6Bcf.  7 Day Avg. = 107.5Bcf

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate then High

WEATHER - TODAY = CA and CO experiencing above normal wildfire activity with evacuations growing. Air quality decreasing the closer you get to Canada in the Mid-Con/NE/New England regions. Flash floods across the SE/Carolinas. Rain across the Pac NW/Upper Mid-Con/Gulf/SE regions. Cooler temps for the northern half, warmer temps for the southern half. Scorching temps in the SW/Rockies/TX regions.

6-10 Day = Bullish          8-14 Day = Bullish        30 Day = Bearish

Aug – Oct = Bearish     Sep – Nov  = Bearish  Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS: Peak season begins.

Central Pacific = TS Henriette slowing as it moves towards Hawaii.

Eastern Pacific = TS Henriette moves away from Baja. D1 @90%.

Atlantic = TS Dexter is a nonfactor. D1 @ 40%. D2 @50%.

RIG COUNT as of 8-1-25

Total = 540, -2 w/w.

Oil @ 410 rigs, - 5 w/w.

NatGas @ 124 rigs, +2 w/w.

Miscellaneous @ 6 rigs, +1 w/w.

Last year at this time @ 586.

STORAGE – Estimate for 8-7-25   = +18Bcf. Actual = TBD

Last year = +21Bcf. 5-yr avg = +29Bcf.

-123Bcf compared to this time last year.

+195Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,928Bcf.

At 3,123Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.

Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.

Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.85Tcf.

CRUDE – Prices posted a 1-week low yesterday with falling demand.

Prompt = $66.14, 2025 = $3.97, 2026 = $62.13, 2027 = $61.71

POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1350/kWh. Resi @ $0.1750/kWh.

Even with increased renewables, fossil plants remain crucial for meeting demand, especially during extreme weather surges.

CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 7AM, PST, 8-6-25:

NG 32%, RE 31%, Hydro 8%, Imports 22%, Nuke 5%, Battery 0%.

CAISO Real-Time Price Range = -$41 to $103. Avg. = $32.

CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = $7 to $46. Avg. = $44.

THE BOTTOM LINE

No change form yesterday - good time to buy certain months. The back end of Aug ’25 weather forecasts predicting above normal temps. Prices will increase as cooling demand increases and production could be impacted in the Gulf.

RFP ES provides energy management and supply for the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie