THE ONE MINUTE ENERGY UPDATE FOR 8-7-25

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS

. NYMEX NG prices up for the second straight day.

. Storage comes in well below estimates. NYMEX prices flat/down.

. Good buying opportunities for certain months while winter months still carry inflated premiums, for now.

. EIA predicts production will average 105.9Bcf/D for 2025.

. Storage wise, we are 3% below this time last year (big whoop) and 7% above the 5-year average.

. National forecasts call for a return to above normal heat through mid-Aug. The back end of Aug is also forecast for above normal temps.

 

NYMEX

Sep ’25 – Open = $3.09, High = $3.12, Low = $3.05, Current = $3.06

+$0.08 from 1 week ago

+$0.99 from 1 year ago

50-day avg = $3.43

20-day avg = $3.25

9-day avg = $3.08

RESISTANCE = (R1) = $3.13 (R2) = $3.19

#PIVOT = $3.03

SUPPORT = (S1) = $2.99 (S2) = $2.88

 

NYMEX FORWARD STRIPS

12 months (Sep ’25 Start) = $3.69

Summer Balance ’25 (Sep – Oct) = $3.04

Winter ’26 (Nov ‘25 – Mar ‘26) = $3.95

Summer ’26 (April – Oct) = $3.75

Winter ’27 (Nov ’26 – Mar ’27) = $4.31

Calendar ’26 = $3.93          Calendar ’27 = $3.85

Calendar ’28 = $3.79          Calendar ‘29 = $3.64

 

NYMEX First of the Month Index Avg, by Year, 2025 Thru Aug ‘25

2025 = $3.50        2024 = $2.26        2023 = $2.73

2022 = $6.64        2021 = $3.84        2020 = $2.07

 

BASIS – Green is the dominant color today at delivery points. Pricewise, decent movement in both directions.

Movers – El Paso Plains @ +$0.29 (27%). NW Sumas @ -$0.45 (23%).

#PG&ECGBasis Today +$0.005

#SoCalCGBasis Today +$0.065

 

2025 PG&E CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.41.

2024 avg = $4.02.

2025 SoCal CG FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.84.

2024 avg = $4.49. 

2025 SoCal Bdr FoM Index avg (through Aug ’25) = $3.02.

2024 avg = $3.72.

 

LNG EXPORTS Est. = 16.1Bcf, +20.4% y/y.

MEXICO EXPORTS = 6.7Bcf

CANADIAN IMPORTS = 6.3Bcf

PRODUCTION – Today’s Est. = 107.9Bcf, +5.0% y/y.

SUPPLY – Today’s Est. = 111.8Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 112.7Bcf

DEMAND – Today’s Est.= 103.6Bcf. 7 Day Avg. = 107.5Bcf

7 DAY DEMAND FORECAST = Moderate then HighWEATHER - TODAY = 40 wildfires burning throughout the West region.

Poor air quality remains in the upper MW and NE regions, as well as in parts of the SW. The SE/Carolinas regions remain on flash flood alert. Storms for the Pac NW/UP/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic. Increasing heat for the western half of the US. The rest of the US should enjoy the last day of cooler temperatures.

    6-10 Day = Bullish          8-14 Day = Bullish        30 Day = Bearish            

         

  Aug – Oct = Bearish     Sep – Nov  = Bearish  Winter ’25-’26 = Bearish

      

 

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS: Peak season begins.

Central Pacific = TS Henriette slowing as it moves towards Hawaii.

Eastern Pacific = TS Ivo off the coast of Mexico. TS Henriette no longer a factor for this region.

Atlantic = TS Dexter moves to North Atlantic. D1 @ 30%. D2 @ 60%.

 

RIG COUNT as of 8-1-25

Total = 540, -2 w/w.

Oil @ 410 rigs, - 5 w/w.

NatGas @ 124 rigs, +2 w/w.

Miscellaneous @ 6 rigs, +1 w/w.

Last year at this time @ 586.

 

STORAGE – Estimate for 8-7-25   = +18Bcf. Actual = +7Bcf

Last year = +21Bcf. 5-yr avg = +29Bcf.

-137Bcf compared to this time last year.

+173Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,957Bcf.

At 3,130Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-yr historical range.

Storage forecasted avg for 10-31-25 = 3.90Tcf.

Storage forecasted avg for 3-31-26 = 1.85Tcf.

 

CRUDE – Prices falling further as progress is questioned in the Russia/Ukraine War.

Prompt = $64.19, 2025 = $63.22, 2026 = $61.59, 2027 = $61.27

 

POWER – Nat. Avg - Comm @ $0.1325/kWh. Resi @ $0.1740/kWh.

Demand is down compared to Aug ’24. July saw 17% increase for C&I and Resi markets.

 

CALIFORNIA POWER GEN SUPPLY @ 7AM, PST, 8-7-25:

NG 31%, RE 33%, Hydro 7%, Imports 22%, Nuke 5%, Battery 0%.

CAISO Real-Time Price Range = -$9 to $54. Avg. = $42.

CAISO Day-Ahead Price Range = -$53 to $42. Avg. = $35.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Opportunities to buy cheap gas are here. They won’t last forever.

 

RFP ES provides energy management and supply for the following regions: Pac NW/West/SW/Rockies/TX/PJM/Mid-Con/Gulf/Mid-Atlantic.

Sean Dookie, Co-Founder & Principal @ RFP Energy Solutions,

310-433-0137, sdookie@rfpes.com, rfpes.com, X: @RFPESLLC, LinkedIn: Sean Dookie