THE RFP Energy Nightcap for 8-8-25

NatGas

Trading range: $2.96 to $3.10

The week will close under $3.00 as prices fell apart after normal trading hours today.  Spot prices fell even further as the national spot average dropped to $2.70.

Production is outpacing “experts” forecasts, passing 108Bcf yesterday and nearing 109Bcf today at last check.

LNG

LNG exports are also surging, expected to reach 14.6Bcf/d in 2025. Cheniere reports 4,220 cumulative cargoes exported as of 8-1-25, with deliveries improving after plant maintenance.

Even so, U.S. exporters are facing fierce competition from low-cost Qatari LNG, while evolving European regulations and trends may squeeze pricing power and market volumes in coming years, or so they think.

Power

U.S. electricity demand set multiple record peaks in late July due to extreme heat, topping 759,000MW nationally.

Continued demand growth will depend on weather, data center expansion, and regional industrial activity. Expect price pressures, especially in high-demand areas.

National Avg = $0.1289. New England = $0.2425. Mid-Atlantic = $0.1682. West North Central region = $0.1053. CA/OR/WA = $0.2396.

The Drivers

Late summer heat continues to boost cooling demand, but some forecasts have removed some expected Northeast heat, stalling the bullish sentiment that traders had been banking on all week. EIA’s smaller-than-expected inventory injection yesterday provided little lift, with overall market outlook still leaning bearish as stocks remain healthy and projections suggest ample gas for winter refilling.

Today’s Specials

A client asked why power prices in CA are so expensive, especially when there is plenty of W&S. The answer – there’s a big difference between energy supply and energy cost. CA has plenty of W&S but costs must be recouped and are passed on to the rate payers. That is why CA power costs so much. Ample supply doesn’t always mean cheaper prices.

Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap – Enjoy the Weekend!