Today's Indicative Fixed Prices & Market Intel

10/10/23

#NYMEX #NYMEXFlatteningOut? #NaturalGas #Energy #DropinDemandComing #DownwardCorrectionExpectedLaterThisWeek #CAISOPowerPrices #CABasis

NYMEX* – Today’s open = $3.37, high = $3.44, low = $3.33, currently sitting @ $3.38. Nov ’23 is up as much as $0.06 so far today. Green through Oct ‘24. NYMEX prices are up almost $0.40 from 1 week ago. Still down approximately $3.30 from 1 year ago. *

NYMEX Calendar Estimates* - $3.50 for 2023, $3.59 for 2024, $4.04 for 2025. *

Resistance* - Starting @ $3.38. Support -Starting @ $3.28. We hit the critical resistance point of $3.38 earlier this morning. *

Production & Demand* - Production = 100.9BCF/D, down 0.1Bcf from the previous year, right at the 30-day average. Demand = 94.4BCF/D, down 7.7Bcf from the previous year. Up 1.9Bcf versus the 3-year average of 92.47Bcf. *

Basis* – Both PG&E CG and SoCal Basis are in the third day of a downward correction. Nov ’23 is down as much as $0.05 from yesterday. For the past few days, we’ve seen Basis start the day strong only to fall by market close. We could see the downward overcorrection we’ve been anticipating later this week, and into next week. *

Weather* – Last of the summer heat making its way through the SW, TX, and Gulf region. Cooling Demand could be gone by Friday with no heating demand either. Could get bearish! *

CA Retail Power* – averaged around $70.00 yesterday. Expected to fall as weather and natgas supply improves. *

Storage* – 10-12-23 – Early estimates range from 90Bcf – 98Bcf. Last week’s report = 86Bcf. *

Indicative Fixed Prices out of Nov ‘23

PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.53 BTS)

1 MONTH $6.91 $8.66 $7.02

3 MONTHS $8.88 $10.15 $8.78

6 MONTHS $7.72 $8.45 $7.40

12 MONTHS $6.55 $7.21 $5.70

24 MONTHS $6.32 $7.05 $6.04

Winter Strips (Nov ’23 – March ‘24)

$8.25 $9.16 $7.52

Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)

$5.30 $5.75 $4.19