Welcome to Friday Stagnation
THE One Minute Energy Update for 4-5-24
#WelcomeToFridayStagnation
***#NYMEXUp #PG&EBasisUp #SoCalGasBasisUp #WeatherIsAFactor #CarbonOffsetsSoldHere ***
***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.77, High = $1.81, Low = $1.75, Current = $1.81. NYMEX prices are up approximately $0.05 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.30 from 1 year ago. *
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.47, 2025 = $3.46, 2026 = $3.80.*
*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *
*We are below the 50-day ($1.83), but above the 20-day ($1.72) and above the 9-day ($1.75) average. *
RESISTANCE* – Starting @ $1.82/$1.88. *
THE PIVOT* @ $1.79. *
SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.74/$1.71. *
BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are up ever so slightly today. Same as the past few days - Front months are falling hard in price. We should look at locking up the summer months before summer heat provides bullish support. *
*The 2023 PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83. The 2023 SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95. The 2023 SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14. *
***LNG EXPORTS, NG EXPORTS, NG IMPORTS ****– LNG exports averaging 12.8Bcf.D. Exports to Mexico = 6.2Bcf/D. Imports from Canada = 4.5Bcf. *
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* – Today’s Est. Supply = 107.4Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 106.89Bcf. Today’s Est. Production = 102.1Bcf. *
*Today’s Est. Demand = 118.0Bcf. Highest demand day of the past 7 days. Latest Demand 7 Day Avg. = 105.65Bcf. 7-day Demand forecast moves to “high” before falling to “very low” by Tuesday next week. *
***RIG COUNT ****– The total rig count is down 18% from this time 1 year ago. The next rig count comes out later today. *
STORAGE* – We are 422Bcf above this time last year and 633Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,626Bcf. At 2,259Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. *
WEATHER* – NatGasWeather.com has this to say for the next 6 days, “A spring storm will impact the Great Lakes & East through the weekend w/rain, snow, and lows 20s-30s, highs of 40s to 50s for strong demand. The rest of the US will be mild to nice w/highs of 50s to 80s. Much of the US will warm into the very nice 50s to 80s next week for very light demand. Overall, high demand through the weekend, then light to very light.”*
*5 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer (June – Aug) forecast = bullish. *
CRUDE –* Anyone been buying crude stocks? No? You should have! Current price = $87.36. That’s’ up $2 from yesterday’s opening price. Forward estimates: 2024 = $83.52, 2025 = $76.34, 2026 = $71.26. *****
CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO just over $49 per MWH. Quite the jump from 1 week ago.*
CARBON OFFSETS –* We’re going to see a lot of carbon offsets coming out of Africa as their government finally gets serious about implementing “clean cooking” mandates/projects. If you’re looking to buy carbon offsets, many of our Supply Partners offer carbon offset menus (type of carbon offset, price per unit, etc.) for review and purchase.*
RENEWABLE ENERGY* – How much of an effect will Monday’s eclipse have on natural gas demand and daily spot pricing when solar panels go dark throughout the Mid-Continent region???*
***THE BOTTOM LINE ***– We’re changing direction based off market conditions. Short-term fixed prices are very attractive right now.
**Indicative Fixed Prices out of May ’24 **
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $2.65 $2.58 $2.33
3 MONTHS $3.00 $3.42 $3.05
6 MONTHS $3.45 $4.17 $3.93
12 MONTHS $4.67 $5.33 $4.87
24 MONTHS $5.08 $5.78 $5.24
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.41 $4.14 $3.62
Winter Strip (Nov ’24 – Feb ’25)
$6.43 $7.17 $6.70