Will Four Day Weekend Pricing Rally?
THE One Minute Energy Update for 2/14/24
#4DayWeekendPricingComing
***#NYMEXFallSlowing #PG&EBasisMixed #SoCalGasBasisMixed #WeatherBearish #CarbonOffsets ***
***NYMEX ****– Pricing resembles yesterday’s opening hours. Weather may be limiting the current bear run over the next 24 hours. And let’s see if this upcoming 4-day weekend follows recent history with violent upward spikes. *
***NYMEX pricing so far today - ****Open = $1.72, High = $1.74, Low = $1.66, Current = $1.67. NYMEX prices are down approximately $0.45 from 1 week ago and down approximately $0.75 from 1 year ago. *
NYMEX CALENDAR YEAR ESTIMATES* – 2024 = $2.29, 2025 = $3.41, 2026 = $3.76. *
*We are below the 50-day ($2.48), the 20-day ($2.18), and the 9-day ($1.89) average. *
RESISTANCE* – Starting @ 1.76/$1.84. *
THE PIVOT* @ $1.71.*
SUPPORT* - Starting @ $1.63/$1.57. *
*2023 NYMEX Monthly average = $2.73. 2022 NYMEX Monthly average = $6.64. 2021 NYMEX Monthly average = $3.84. *
BASIS* – Both PG&E and SoCal Basis prices are show little to no movement from yesterday. A stall in movement isn’t the worst thing right now. Will we see a downward movement once this stall ends? *
*The PG&E CG First of the Month Index averaged $9.83 for 2023. The SoCal CG First of the Month Index averaged $10.95 for 2023. The SoCal Border First of the Month Index averaged $8.14 for 2023. *
EXPORTS & LNG EXPORTS* – LNG exports are averaging 13.3Bcf/D so far this week.*
PRODUCTION/SUPPLY & DEMAND* –**** ***Today’s Est. Supply = 110.9Bcf. Supply 7 Day Avg. = 110.88Bcf. Today’s Estimated Production = 104.9Bcf. Demand - Today’s Est. Demand = 126.4Bcf. Demand 7-Day Avg. = 117.98Bcf/D. Demand is expected to be lower than normal.
***RIG COUNT –As of 2-9-24 – Overall rig ****count = 623, down from 761 active rigs from 1 year ago. The oil rig count is unchanged from last week’s count for a total of 499. Natural gas rigs increased by 4 rigs for a total of 121. *
WEATHER* – NG Weather has this to say, “Mild temperatures impact much of the US the next few days w/highs of 30s-50s across the northern US besides locally colder 20s. The southern US will be mild to nice w/highs of 50s-70s. Frosty air will spread across the Plains, Midwest, & Northeast this weekend into next week w/highs of 20s-40s, lows of 0s-20s. Overall, light national demand through Friday, then moderate-high this weekend.” 6 – 10-day forecast = bearish. 10-15-day forecast = bearish. 3-month forecast = bearish. Summer forecast = bullish.*
STORAGE* – Next storage report comes out 2-15-24. We are now 187Bcf higher than we were last year and 248Bcf above the 5-year average 2,584Bcf. At 3,476Bcf, we are above the 5-year historical range. EIA projects to end the Withdrawal season at 1.942Tcf. This is the highest storage level projected since 2020. The 5-year average is 1.653Tcf. However, EIA slashed their end of season projection 2 weeks ago from 2.155Tcf to 1.905Tcf.*
***CRUDE – ****Down a few pennies today. Nearing $77.50. Estimates - 2024 = $76.05, 2025 = $71.43, 2026 = $68.11. *****
CA RETAIL POWER* – CAISO is just above $49MWH. *
***UNRELIABLE
RENEWABLE ENERGY – ****Here’s a recent breakdown on the percentage of renewables used to power California. 36% of CA’s energy comes from renewable energy. The breakdown: Coal 0%, Fossil 47%, Nuclear 9%, Hydro 8%, Wind 8%, Solar 19%. California ranks 13th in the US for most renewable energy used. # 1 is South Dakota with 83%, followed by Vermont at 76%, Washington state at 74%, Idaho at 69%, and 5th place goes to Oregon at 64%. Nuclear is not recognized as “renewable” in this report. Why? I do not know. *
***CARBON OFFSETS – ***Many of our supply partners offer carbon offset with a vast menu to choose from if you are looking to shrink your carbon footprint. Feel free to contact us for more on carbon offsets whenever you like.
***THE BOTTOM LINE – ****No change from yesterday.******Buy NYMEX now. Wait for a downward correction on California Basis before buying more. *
**Indicative Fixed Prices out of March ’24 **
PG&E CG SOCAL CG SoCal Border (+ $0.51 BTS)
1 MONTH $3.41 $3.57 $3.33
3 MONTHS $3.40 $3.80 $3.35
6 MONTHS $3.70 $4.51 $4.06
12 MONTHS $4.75 $5.75 $5.27
24 MONTHS $4.99 $5.84 $5.30
Summer Strip (April ’24 – Aug ‘24)
$3.78 $4.67 $4.24