Your Energy Night Cap for 7-23-25

NatGas Futures

• Settled at $3.065 per MMBtu, down 5.75% on the day—lowest since April 2025
• Multi-week decline; down more than 16% over the past month
• Still up 45% year-over-year
• Trading range: $3.062–$3.267 per MMBtu

LNG

• Averaging 16.5 Bcf/d, up 2.7% week-over-week as maintenance winds down
• Export activity: 30 U.S. LNG vessels departed (July 10–16), carrying 114 Bcf
• Outlook: Strong LNG flows, but not enough to offset bearish weather and output factors

Power

• Demand: U.S. electricity generation up 2.1% YoY (week ending July 19)
• Outlook: Milder weather forecast to slightly reduce incremental gas demand for power
• Prices: No major regional power price spikes reported as demand remains moderate

Fundamental Drivers

• Production: U.S. Lower 48 output at record highs (~107.2 Bcf/d in July)
• Storage: Inventories about 6% above 5-year seasonal average
• Weather: Forecasts shifted milder, lowering expected cooling demand
• EIA Storage Report: Analysts expect ~+27 Bcf injection.

Summary Observations

• Milder weather and robust production pressured natural gas lower.
• Storage remains ample, reducing the price risk for now.
• LNG exports are strong but offset by domestic bearish trends.
• Moderate electricity demand growth; power prices stable

Looking Ahead

• Storage and production fundamentals expected to keep prices rangebound.
• Further price moves depend on weather shifts and global LNG demand changes.
• Producers signaling higher output for 2025 to meet growing LNG and power sector needs.