Your Energy Nightcap for 7-25-25

NatGas

Trading range: $3.068–$3.145, Settled at $3.110

NYMEX NG prices are 50% higher than this time last year and 12% below last month.

Storage Injections slow down due to increased demand.

LNG

Seeing a slight decline this month due to routine maintenance and unplanned outages at major terminals (Sabine Pass, Freeport). Despite this, daily avg flows have rebounded to 15.8Bcf/D in July as units return online.

Still below the daily average seen in the Spring.

Power

NG continues to lead power generation with 47%. W&S contributing the 2nd highest %.

Prices are up 6% year-to-date.

Significant rollbacks in One Big Beautiful Bill (or OB3 as it’s easier referred to) are triggering investment cancellations for W&S projects. We’re looking at $373BB in investment likely going elsewhere. Pipelines and SMRs are a nice option.

Looking Ahead

Will the cooler temps next week have traders/analysts screaming of an early and colder than normal winter? Anything to move the needle to the right.

And what did we just say about Nuclear (SMR)? Westinghouse and ENEC just agreed today to accelerate nuclear projects

The Drivers

Rigs and output have ticked up week-over-week, adding pressure on oversupplied conditions.

Slower injections as summer demand picks up, but inventories remain high, going into peak summer demand.

In Summation

Increasing LNG exports and the inevitability of significant power demand increases aren’t getting the attention they deserve in my opinion. Are traders slowly and quietly buying up future months on the cheap?  If you look at trading volume, and we do, the answer is “Yes!”.

Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap