Your Energy Nightcap for 8-11-25

NatGas

Trading range: $2.89 to $3.00

Gas prices are down to buying ranges we only dreamt of 3 months ago.

The “experts” believe we will see pricing average in the $2.95 to $3.25 range for the balance of 2025. We could average between that but all it takes is 1 day for spot prices to rally and send your open positions to $20+.  Don’t fall into this soft frame of mind that the current driving factors will stay this way forever.

LNG

NextDecade secured up to $3BB in equity commitments from TotalEnergies and Global Infrastructure Partners to fund an additional liquefaction train at its Rio Grande (TX) export facility. A sure sign of continued investor interest in American LNG infrastructure.

Power

The $7BB Solar For All program is all but dead in the water. Who’s the genius who proposed this deal with plans for building solar fields in the upper Mid-Con, under gray skies and stacks of snow.

FTR – it’s alternative energy, not clean energy because it’s quite filthy in production.

The US is setting LNG exporting records to countries with failing energy management, i.e., banking everything on RE, and there’s a push for the US to follow such stupidity.

In the simplest of terms, we need to build the bridge before we try and drive across the water.

The Drivers

The outlook for late summer/early autumn calling for below normal, limiting shoulder season demand, which could limit demand, pushing winter prices down.

Today’s Specials

Gas futures are now expected to remain near the $3.00 mark through late 2025, with market sentiment skewed toward softer prices unless new bulls appear. Paying attention to colder winter forecasts and growing LNG export volumes are advised.

This bear run will end. Lock it up and get out.

Our Nightcap Beats Their Recap